After 14 years out of power, Labour won a huge parliamentary majority, and there are an unprecedented number of MPs from left and centre-left parties in the House of Commons.

Thin Ice: Why the UK’s progressive majority could stop Labour’s landslide melting away uses new polling and analysis to show that Labour’s majority is big but brittle. Our new polling reveals that 4 in 10 people who voted Labour in July 2024 do not consider themselves very strong supporters of the party, or supporters at all. They just voted tactically.

In the paper we show the biggest threat Labour faces is also its biggest opportunity – the progressive majority of the UK.

Thin Ice argues that because of the precariousness of the 2024 result, the way our multi-party politics behaves in a First Past the Post System, and the eagerness of progressive voters to rally around an ambitious programme for change, the way for Labour to win a second term is to be progressive and pluralist.

This report is an invitation to progressive leaders to work together to secure a decade of renewal.