The moment is replete with possibility, both wonderful and awful. The old is dying but refuses to die. The new, in the form of a profound sense of interconnectedness and autonomy is being born but is fragile, dispersed and underfunded. The gap between decline and fear on the one hand and change and hope on the other has never been greater.

Amidst this confusion and hope, the search for a new paradigm begins. Two possible futures await: authoritarian or democratic? In the crisis, which one will be chosen?

This paper attempts to explore why and how new paradigms emerge, what’s happening now and the nature and likelihood of a progressive shift to what we are tentatively calling a New Settlement.

These opening thoughts are the precursor to a deeper piece of work Compass and others are preparing for the Spring of 2024, to set out the vision, ideas and broad policy direction of a new progressive settlement; how do new economic and democratic practices enable it to happen?

The New Settlement is a project from Compass that hopes to address the growing need for a new politics to build a new society. This campaign will work hand-in-hand with Win As One, the election-focussed campaign to win a progressive majority to change our democracy, and will attempt to provide a roadmap for what comes afterwards. The project will help describe a post neo-liberal world and the nature of a deeper democracy, political economy and state that will underpin it, along with the movement and alliances, across party, in civil society and purposeful business, that will shape it and bring it into being.