Ansell may or may not fit with this billing, but what’s going on with swathes of liberal progressive commentators and politicians is a blight which we can call ‘returnism’, that is the broad notion that populism is simply a blip, a glitch in the Matrix, from which at any moment soon, we will return to normality. This normality can be defined by another peak, the peak of the long 90s, when growth was relatively high, public services relatively good, and things could trickle along and somewhat down.

It was an era in which the grown-ups were in charge and the centre could hold.  The senseless deviations of Brexit and Trump were seen as just that, moments of madness which would be inevitably corrected once people came to their senses and the grown-ups re-took their rightful place.

There are three fundamental problems with this worldview, which combine to categorically deny the option of such a return.

The first is this golden era of centrism was only golden for a few. Some never had it so good, not least via the Polish builders who would turn up on time and do a better job for half the price of their British counterparts.  But in what seemingly became another country, frustration, insecurity, anxiety and alienation festered for decades as de-industrialisation took its toll on the lives of people who lost not just a pay packet but their the dignity and the fabric of their community. Resentment is a powerful emotion.

The second problem is that this era proved itself to be unsustainable. The 2008 global crash broke the system and almost brought the global economic order to its knees.  Austerity kicked in and is being kicked in again, as capitalism fails to offer sufficient returns to cover the excessive lifestyle and power expectations of the uber rich, let alone the need for social and environmental investment or the basic living standards of the vast majority.

But the third and bigger problem is that whichever peak national populism might be at, the reasons have less to do with their actions and rely instead on the seeming inability of progressives to govern effectively anymore. National populism will always be contradictory and chaotic, but enough people will back it if the alternative feels worse. For them, at least Trump seems to be doing something. The simple truth is that centrist progressives no longer know how to govern the economy and the state in ways that benefits enough people enough of the time. When we add in tone deaf responses to big culture and identity issues then it doesn’t matter how bad the national populists might be, it will feel like time for change, time for anything which isn’t the dead hand of the centre.

The underpinnings of liberal democracy have been hollowed out for a long time.  We were warned quite clearly over Brexit but instead of asking the fundamental question, namely why did over half the country vote to leave the European Union, we instead sneered at the ‘idiots’ who had imposed such obvious self-harm, and demanded a recount dressed up as a ‘People’s Vote’.  It is time to rethink.

The only thing you can ever really change is yourself – so let’s start there.

Let’s start by acknowledging the pact liberals and progressives made with neoliberalism, the fawning around people like Rupert Murdoch, the folly of opening our borders when Europe expanded eastward and to not manage record migration levels, or at least ensure there were sufficient schools, hospitals, dentists and homes and that the minimum wage high enough and fully enforced.

Let’s start by recognising for the comfortable middle classes’ multiculturalism offered access to a broader culture of joy, but to those struggling and who found comfort in stable and enduring communities, the breakneck speed of change and sense of loss in the last 25 years had been unsettling.

We can and must offer policy responses, by not cutting benefits, ramping up a minimum income guarantee or UBI, investing in skills and further education, sorting injustices like the council tax system and shifting to a fairer property tax, really devolving power, investing in public services and most of all building decent social homes.  But until we look at ourselves and the cocooned world in which many of us live, then events like Brexit or over a quarter of voters backing Reform in the polls will be the new normal.

So here is the pattern we have to break, liberal centrists fail economically and culturally and national populists fill the void. The populist right govern chaotically and liberals are returned but fail again. And so it goes on. But the big loser is faith in democratic and collective governance.

In the USA the Clinton strategist James Carville has suggested to the Democrats that they shouldjust keep their heads down for four years and Trump will win them the next election. That might be true, but unless progressives in the USA, the UK and elsewhere can devise a feasible and desirable alternative to the economic and cultural chaos of neo-liberalism on steroids, aka Elon Musk, then the national populists will morph and manoeuvre their way through democracy until there is no democracy. And progressives will win the odd battle but lose the war and they will deserve to.